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TS Igor 11 PM EDT 13.8N 24.6W Moving: West 7 mph Winds: 45 mph Pressure: 1005 mb Click here to track Igor
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UPDATED: 8:15 pm EDT, September 8, 2010 by Mark Sudduth email me
TROPICS ABOUT AS BUSY AS COULD BE EXPECTED
The tropics are making news even if not directly. Take a look at the remnants of TS Hermine in Texas, Oklahoma and Arkansas as an example. A tornado watch, with confirmed tornadoes on the ground, is in effect for a portion the region due to the unstable air mass in place resulting from the circulation of Hermine. Add to this the extreme rain fall totals and the problems associated with that and it all adds up to quite a mess. All of this from a tropical storm that made landfall near the TX/MX border.
And then we have TS Igor near the Cape Verde Islands. Top winds are 45 mph as the system organizes and deals with a nearby batch of energy and convection. Once everything comes together, Igor should be quite a hurricane in the central Atlantic. Where it ultimately tracks is a question that cannot be answered right now. Odds seem to favor it turning north around 60W longitude and never affecting land but this is not a guarantee- not this early.
Elsewhere, the NHC has outlined an area of interest near the Windward Islands in the extreme SE Caribbean Sea. This feature has some potential to become a tropical depression as it moves little right now. Computer models indicate an eventual drift to the WNW or NW as the weekend nears. Folks in Jamaica and the Caymans will want to monitor this feature closely.
The forecasts for a very busy hurricane season appear to be spot on. We are up to nine named storms before the traditional peak of the hurricane season which is on the 10th of this month. I imagine that the next few weeks will probably just as busy, if not more so, than the last few. Our luck has been remarkable wit no major impacts- although TS Hermine is certainly leaving its mark in Texas and Oklahoma; a reminder that even tropical storms can cause major disruptions. We really do have a long way to go and plenty to keep track of. I'll post more here in the morning update, around 9am ET.
UPDATED: 11:10 am EDT, September 8, 2010 by Mark Sudduth email me
NHC NOW ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TS IGOR IN FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC
That did not take long at all. We now have Igor, the 9th named storm of the season, just off the coast of Africa and moving westward. In fact, it will threaten the Cape Verde Islands with possible tropical storm conditions. Current forecast track takes it generally westward over the next five days as it steadily strengthens. Igor should become a hurricane in that time period as well but will not be a factor to threaten any additional land areas for at least a week, if not longer. I'll have a complete update on Igor and the rest of the tropics this evening by 8pm ET.
UPDATED: 8:50 am EDT, September 8, 2010 by Mark Sudduth email me
REMNANTS OF HERMINE STILL DROPPING A LOT OF RAIN AS WE BEGIN TO TRACK WHAT WILL BECOME IGOR
It looks like another day of heavy rains for portions of Texas, Oklahoma and Arkansas as the remnants of TS Hermine continue to spin across the region. The excessive rains have caused numerous problems since beginning on Monday as the storm approached south Texas from the Gulf of Mexico. It is going to take another couple of days for the slowly dwindling system to move out of the area. This just underscores the importance of understanding the power of any tropical cyclone. This was not a major hurricane hit but is causing problems for millions of people across a region that normally does not see much influence from tropical systems. Better weather will return soon and the weekend ahead looks nice across the affected areas.
In the far eastern Atlantic, we are watching 91L slowly organize near the Cape Verde Islands. A quick refresher as to what a "91L" is: the NHC assigns a number and a letter, in the case of the Atlantic, the letter is "L". The numbers range from 90-99 and then begin again. So 91L is simply the label assigned to this particular area of suspect weather. The next area to pop up that could develop would be called "92L" and so forth. It is also a means of assigning more resources to the system such as satellite, computer models, air craft recon, etc.
The global models are in unamimous agreement that this system will eventually develop in to the next named storm: Igor. This name replaces Ivan which was retired from the list after the 2004 season. The future of this system seems fairly straight forward for now- a mostly west track to about 50W in five days or so. From there, it all comes down to where the break in the subtropical high pressure area is. So far, it has taken up residence between 60 and 75 west longitude, keeping the likes of Danielle and Earl out to sea (although Earl did make landfall in Nova Scotia). There are hints that we may see a stronger Bermuda High this time around though we are talking 10 days down the road. All it takes is for the pattern to allow a large hurricane to track west for a day or two longer than we have seen recently and our run of good luck comes to an end. For now, there is absolultely no threat to land other than the Cape Verde Islands which will receive showers and thunderstorms from the passing embryonic storm. We'll be on top of it every step of the way. I'll have another update here tonight by 8pm ET.
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