MW

UPDATED: 12:15 am EDT, September 18, 2008
AS MUCH AS WE WISH IT WERE, THE SEASON ISN'T OVER YET

Now that Ike has completely cleared the weather pattern, it’s easy to think that the hurricane threat is over. The tropics are as quiet as they can be considering it is only one week after the climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season.

Just like the eerie calm in the eye of Ike, it may seem like it’s over, but it’s not. In another couple of weeks, the atmospheric pattern may very well change, and I expect we should have another enhancing pulse by the end of September.

In fact, I would not at all be surprised to see an active Caribbean as we get into October, and one something gets into the Caribbean, it’s almost impossible for a tropical system to not hit something on the way out.

So yes, it may be calm right now, but things can change quickly.

MW

UPDATED: 7:30 pm EDT, September 15, 2008
LONG RECOVERY FOR GALVESTON AHEAD

The mayor of Galveston has urged all residents to stay away from the island, and for residents who did not leave before the storm to leave now. Conditions there are getting unlivable.

There is no running water. There is no power over 100% of the island. Standing water is breeding mosquitoes (I was bitten 10 to 20 times Sunday alone when we pulled our equipment out). There is no gas available (except to recovery workers who have access to fuel from the city). Nails and debris are all over the roads. Most houses we saw up close had at least some flooding, so while the homes look intact at first glance, many have likely been made uninhabitable due to flooding. A resident, Mark Garcia, took us on a tour of his home that had a waterline inside, 6 feet above the ground, even though it looked OK from the street.

Officials estimate that it will take up to a month to bring power back to the island, and a week to get it back at the most critical facilities (like the main hospital).

Emergency officials, first responders and law enforcement are doing everything they can down there. I would strongly urge Galveston residents to be as patient as possible; officials have a huge job ahead of them. This will be a long and painful recovery process once search and rescue operations are complete.

I know many areas Texas were hit hard. But we met some good people in Galveston, and I know this historic city will rise once again, just as it did 108 years ago.

MW

UPDATED: 4:10 pm CDT, September 11, 2008
IKE PRESENTS A DANGEROUS SURGE THREAT. RESIDENTS SHOULD PREPARE NOW

The inner wind maxima of Ike has effectively dissipated, and the outer wind maxima is taking over. As this process was occurring today, the central pressure went up a little to 954MB. Since then, the pressure is trending downward to 950MB at last measurement. Looking at satellite imagery, it does indeed appear that Ike is starting to strengthen again.

The story with this hurricane will be the large and dangerous surge. Because of Ikes unusually large wind field, the expanse and the height of the surge will be much greater than what a category 2/3 hurricane usually produces. It is absolutely critical that residents evacuate when told to do so. Time is running out…and evacuation preparations should be complete by morning.

By late tomorrow morning, tropical storm force winds will begin to affect the coast and hurricane conditions are possible by late Friday afternoon. By that time, it will be impossible to move around and emergency services will no be operating. I must stress again this will be a significant surge well inland from the coast, and residents should be reacting now.

More later tonight.
MW

UPDATED: 10:45 am EDT, September 11, 2008
PRESSURE IS DROPPING, BUT WINDS NOT INCREASING...YET

The central pressure of Ike has lowered about 12 to 14 millibars over the last 18 hours. Usually this would suggest the cyclone is strengthening. However, data from recon throughout the day tells the NHC that instead of the maximum winds increasing, the wind field is expanding. As of now, hurricane force winds extend out up to 115 miles from the center, making Ike a very large hurricane.

Ike also has a very small inner eye, and a much larger secondary eyewall much further from the center. It would appear these two features are competing a bit, as if an eyewall replacement cycle has somehow gone haywire. As long as this is the case, Ike may not strengthen in the next 12 to 18 hours. From there, it is difficult to predict what Ike could do. The hurricane specific intensity models all point to strengthening into a major hurricane, so residents of Texas should prepare for that to happen.

The latest global models are in and suggest the track may be shifting slightly north of the previous guidance. It remains to be seen how close Ike comes to Houston or Galveston Bay, for example. It could come in south of those areas, right over or even pass to the east. The angle of the coast, and the spread in the model guidance makes pinpointing an exact landfall difficult. Residents should keep in mind that Ike is a very large hurricane, and its effects will be felt for hundreds of miles along the coast.

After getting some sleep in Gulfport, more later today as we make our way to Galveston.

MW

UPDATED: 10:30 pm EDT, September 9, 2008
IKE ON THE MOVE AND GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED

Ike emerged from the western coast of Cuba earlier this evening and has quickly become better organized. A well-defined eye has developed, and deep convection has returned around it.

Ike is already a large hurricane and should continue to grow in size over the next couple of days. In fact, the hurricane could take up most of the Gulf of Mexico.

The upper environment is ideal for strengthening, and along the NHC forecast track, Ike will pass over several deep eddies, or pockets of very warm water. These provide extra fuel to the hurricane, and there is a chance that Ike could become a dangerous hurricane once again before approaching the Texas coast this weekend.

The global and hurricane models are in close agreement that the ridge steering Ike will weaken by the end of the week, which should allow Ike to more further north than some of the models were forecasting yesterday. The GFS model, which had shifted north earlier today, returned to a track toward southern Texas this evening. The bottom line is any part of the Texas coast could receive a direct hit from Ike, but because it is such a large system, most of the coast will feel its impact. Residents of coastal Texas should be reviewing their hurricane plans and be prepared to act should local officials instruct them to do so.

More from the road tomorrow.

MW

UPDATED: 10:30 pm EDT, September 7, 2008
IKE WOBBLING, MODELS SPLIT ON EVENTUAL TRACK

The west-northwest wobble ended earlier today and Ike has resumed a westward track. It is possible that Ike has been undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle, which is common with intense hurricanes. This may have been the cause of some of the weakening we saw today.

The eye is making its way over the northeast Cuban coast, and along the NHC forecast track it should stay inland and steadily weaken during the next day or so.

By late tomorrow evening or early Tuesday, Ike should emerge into the Gulf of Mexico and begin to restrengthen over water...but could still make a close pass to the middle and lower Keys. By mid week, Ike could become a large and dangerous hurricane once again.

From there, the models have continued their split, with the Euro, UKMET and the GFS furthest west, and the HWRF and NOGAPS still with a track into the central/eastern Gulf. The GFDL and HWRF shifted to the east from their previous runs...but it is still too early to tell where Ike could come in late in the week.

Ike could connect with a weakness in the ridge in the northern-Gulf, or it could miss this weakness and move further west toward the upper Texas coast.

We will know more as we get into tomorrow. I will post an update around noon.

MW

UPDATED: 3:50 pm EDT, September 7, 2008
IKE WOBBLING, MODELS SPLIT ON EVENTUAL TRACK

Over the last several hours, Ike has wobbled sightly north of due west, which makes the first northward movement we've seen from the cyclone in the last three days. However, the NHC is still forecasting a mostly westward track over the coast of eastern Cuba late tonight.

This could be a critical development. Every northward wobble gives Ike a little more time over water, and it wouldn't take very many of them to take Ike too close to the Keys for comfort. It's important to note that the Keys remain in the northern swath of the NHC forecast cone...which is why they are currently under a hurricane watch. Residents there simply cannot afford to let their guard down just yet.

The model guidance for Ike is in and it has not changed appreciably since last night. They remain in mostly two distinct camps. The ECMWF, GFS and UKMET are forecasting Ike to come off of Cuba and move through the central Gulf towards the upper Texas coast late in the week. The Navy NOGAPS and the HWRF model believe Ike will catch a weakness in the ridge in the next couple of days and move into the eastern/central Gulf. The GFDL somewhat splits the difference...and is the closest model to the current NHC track. Initially, based on the synoptic setup I am seeing...I think there is a chance Ike could very well end up east of the NHC forecast track as the week progresses. Residents all along the Gulf coast should be watching this carefully and dusting off their hurricane plans.

More later tonight...

MW

UPDATED: 1:25 am EDT, September 7, 2008
IKE HEADING FOR CUBA, GULF OF MEXICO

During the day today, Ike has reintensified to a dangerous Category four hurricane.

Over the past several runs, the global models have been shifting southward and westward with Ike. Based on the latest information from the Hurricane Center, Ike should stay to the south of Florida, although residents there should not let their guard down until Ike is safely past their longitude.

The Gulfstream IV environmental sampling mission, which was flown to hopefully give the global models better information to predict the track of Ike, did little to change the model guidance from the GFS and NOGAPS models this evening. Both are right along the NHC forecast track through the next few days, and depict Ike affecting the northern coast of Cuba starting tomorrow night. From there, the model tracks take Ike dangerously close to the Keys and into the Gulf of Mexico, with the GFS tracking Ike further west, and the NOGAPS into the eastern Gulf.

The UKMET model also tracks Ike into the Gulf, but has shifted about 200 miles northward on it's longer term solution. Previously, the UKMET was significantly further west than any of the other global models.

On any of these projected tracks, the only known limiting factor for intensification is land interaction, so once Ike moves clear of Cuba it will most likely restrengthen into a dangerous hurricane.

From there, it is too early to determine what area of the northern or western Gulf is most likely to have to deal with Ike...but residents from Tampico Mexico to western Florida should be keeping a very close eye on Ike as the week begins.

More tomorrow evening, including hopefully some meteorological analysis from some of our weather stations along the Gulf Coast during the landfall of Gustav

MW

UPDATED: 2:20 pm EDT, September 5, 2008
AFTERNOON UPDATE ON IKE

Here is a quick afternoon update on Ike.

There has not been a significant change in the afternoon computer models. They are all in very tight agreement that Ike will not move northward and turn away from the Florida coast. The GFDL and UKMET models take Ike close to the Keys and into the southeast Gulf of Mexico in five days, but only the UKMET model has Ike continuing west-northwest beyond that time. The GFDL has Ike turning to the north-northwest just off of the Florida west coast in five days…but with much less of a westward component of motion late in the forecast period as compared to the previous run.

One thing to note about the UKMET. It was consistently way too far west with Gustav over the Gulf and with Hanna when it was also east of Florida, so it is possible that the model once again has a westward bias late in the forecast period.

The NOGAPS, HWRF, and GFS models bring Ike over extreme southern Florida. In fact, all in all the models are in very tight agreement at day 5…but they differ before then. The main issue is how far south Ike gets before turning west then northwest. The models that bring Ike closer to Florida are a little further north in their forecast positions for the weekend.

Also, recon is flying into Ike right now. So far, they lowest pressure is 959MB with an estimate of winds near 105 MPH at the surface. They still have some investigating to do, and they could find higher winds before the mission is over.

More later tonight as time permits.

UPDATED: 11:30 am EDT, September 5, 2008
HANNA MAKING ITS MOVE, QUESTIONS STILL SURROUND IKE

Hanna is trying to get better organized. Although rapid intensification is not likely, it still could approach hurricane status before making landfall near eastern North Carolina later tonight. Mark and Jesse are on the way to work in this system, and they will have plenty of updates as the day moves along.

Ike is currently weakening. Visible satellite imagery from today shows the eye is becoming less defined as northerly shear takes its toll on the hurricane. In the short term this is good news. Ike is expected to weaken further, and could possibly become a category two hurricane later today or tomorrow.

To help get an idea of the timing (especially for south Florida) here is a quick summary of what is expected in the coming days:

Friday Night: Recon will have made its first pass through the storm, giving forecasters a better idea of how intense the hurricane really is. Ike is expected to weaken further due to unfavorable upper winds from the north, and is forecast to move just a little south of due west as a strong ridge of high pressure pushes it along.

Saturday Night: By this time, Ike should be a category two storm. However, by the end of the day on Saturday, the environment around the hurricane will be less hostile for strengthening, and sea surface temperatures will become progressively warmer along the forecast track as Ike moves to the west or west-southwest.

Sunday Night: Ike is expected to become a major hurricane once again, and this is where the forecast gets difficult. Some of the forecast models show Ike moving further south, and others have it turning more to the west or even west-northwest toward the Florida coast. Unfortunately, it is too early to tell which scenario will unfold, but by then, we should have a better idea if Ike will take a track into the Gulf of Mexico or become a threat to the Florida east coast.

I will post an update after the new model data is available later this afternoon.

UPDATED: 3:00 pm EDT, September 4, 2008
LOOKING BEYOND HANNA, IKE LURKS ON THE HORIZION

Thanks Mark! I am looking forward to contributing here at HurricaneTrack.com.

Since my background is in intense study of synoptic meteorology, the computer forecast models and the NHC products, my column will focus more on these aspects of the tropics. Of course, if you have any questions, please send me an email.

Mark is covering Hanna pretty well, and my thoughts are not much different from his. Although deep thunderstorm activity is currently limited, Hanna is still a large tropical cyclone. Dry air has put a lid on deep thunderstorm activity for now, but it won’t take much to get Hanna from a 65 MPH tropical storm to a 75 MPH hurricane.

There is another system lurking further out in the tropical Atlantic. At 11:00AM EDT, Ike had sustained winds of 140 MPH, making it a dangerous category four hurricane. Ike is currently undergoing some northerly wind shear, which should cause it to weaken a little more in the next few days. By later this weekend, the upper shear should relax some, and Ike will once again be in a favorable environment for intensification.

It is still too early to tell if Ike will be a threat to land. The Hurricane Center is recommending that residents of the Bahamas keep a close eye on this hurricane as the weekend approaches. From there, the NHC track forecast brings Ike into a position where it could threaten the southeast US coast.

All of the new computer guidance for this afternoon is already in….and the global models are in remarkably good agreement through the next five days. The GFS, NOGAPS and UKMET models have Ike moving into the southern Bahamas as a major hurricane. This represents a westward shift late in the five day forecast period for the GFS and UKMET. These models were forecasting Ike to begin turning away from the coast by that time. It also represents a slight northward shift for the NOGAPS model, which no longer has Ike affecting eastern Cuba. The GFDL and HWRF hurricane models also suggest a threat to the Bahamas, with the GFDL taking IKE over eastern Cuba before approaching the Bahamas and Florida from the south.

Of course, this is just one run of the models. It is still way too early to say if this means anything for the Bahamas or the US coast just yet. Model agreement does not always mean accuracy. It’s best that residents of the southeast who are in the watch area for Hanna begin preparing for a category one hurricane this weekend…but keep a close eye on what is going on with Ike.

If you are a resident of eastern Florida and the Bahamas, you should do everything you should have done at the beginning of the hurricane season. That means making sure you have your hurricane plan prepared and your supplies in hand. We will know much more later in the week and into the weekend. Much can happen between now and then.

UPDATED: 12:00 am EDT, September 4, 2008
INTRODUCING OUR NEW COCONUT CREEK, FL BUREAU CHIEF- MIKE WATKINS!

After almost four years, we figured it was time Mike had his own column. After putting up with Jesse and me for all these years, the man needs a place to call his own! So I am proud to announce that Mike Watkins will have this column to update with info on the tropics, preparedness tips, his thoughts on forecasts, models and much more. I will turn it over to Mr. Watkins right now and ask that he introduce himself and get things started! Mike- it's all you...